ARTICLE – FECOMERCIOSP

THE CHALLENGE OF GROWING IN 2024

This year, Brazil is expected to grow 1.6%, the inflation will be closer to the center of the target (around 3.8%) and the Selic will end the year at 9%. However, there are risk factors (internal and external) that must be monitored, as they affect the dynamics of national growth. From an international perspective, caution is needed in relation to the armed conflicts that have been emerging around the world, the consequences of which could impact commodities and global prices. Furthermore, it is necessary to pay attention to the weaker performances of the Chinese and North American economies, with a relevant impact on the international scenario.

At the domestic level, the main point of attention is the situation of public accounts. Indications for reviewing the fiscal target and increasing public spending without predictability of where the resources will come from generate insecurity about making investments, going against what Brazil needs. All these doubts, which affect interest and inflation expectations to some degree, could cause the Selic reduction cycle to end sooner. This, if it happens, will negatively impact consumer confidence and sales.

In this context — and considering the exceptional performance of retail in São Paulo last year, a record since 2008 —, the challenge of continuing to grow in 2024 will be even greater. FecomercioSP’s expectation is that sales will be close to stable this year, which cannot be seen negatively.

Source: Eletrolar News Ed. 159 – Especial Presidentes